The specter of assassination hangs over the normalization discussions between Israel and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has voiced concerns regarding the potential assassination threats linked to the normalization of relations with Israel, underscoring the necessity of establishing a Palestinian state as part of any agreement. The advancement of normalization discussions is encountering considerable setbacks due to persistent geopolitical tensions and the recent intensification of conflict in Gaza, which affects the prospects of concluding the deal prior to the November elections.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has voiced serious apprehensions regarding his personal safety in the context of normalizing relations with Israel, as reported by Politico. In conversations with U.S. lawmakers, MBS allegedly indicated that he is worried for his life if he moves forward with the agreement without obtaining substantial concessions for the Palestinians.
The Essential Importance of Palestinian Statehood
MBS has highlighted the importance of establishing a definitive route to a Palestinian state as part of any prospective normalization agreement. He cited the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who was murdered by Islamist extremists in 1981 after signing a peace treaty with Israel, as a source of his concerns.
MBS declared, “I will step down from my position as the protector of Islam’s holy sites if I fail to address what I consider the most pressing justice issue in the region.” He emphasized that “the people of Saudi Arabia are profoundly concerned about this matter, and it resonates strongly with the public across the Middle East.”
The Influence of the Gaza Conflict on Normalization Discussions
The recent surge in violence in Gaza has profoundly affected the normalization discussions between Saudi Arabia and Israel. On October 7, a substantial assault orchestrated by Hamas resulted in nearly 1,200 fatalities and the abduction of 251 individuals in southern Israel. This escalation has created significant challenges in the diplomatic arena, hindering the efforts of both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to progress with the agreement as intended.
Discussions between the United States and Saudi Arabia, along with the strategic timing of political events.
In spite of these concerns, MBS remains resolute in pursuing the deal, viewing it as crucial for the future of Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, sources within the U.S. Congress indicate that a resolution regarding the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is improbable to be reached prior to the forthcoming presidential election in November, and there are no existing plans for Senate ratification before the recess.
Nahal Toosi, a senior international affairs journalist at Politico, proposed that MBS could be leveraging the possibility of assassination as a means to coerce U.S. officials into persuading Israel to comply with his demands.
Difficulties and American Engagement
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently pursued normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia; however, he encounters challenges stemming from his stance against the establishment of a future Palestinian state.
President Joe Biden has announced that Saudi Arabia is interested in establishing a civilian nuclear facility and is seeking U.S. security guarantees in return for its complete recognition of Israel.
The White House has recently restarted the delivery of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, ending a moratorium that was in place since 2021. This decision is part of broader efforts to engage Riyadh in efforts to resolve the conflict in Gaza and to address threats posed by Iran.
Geopolitical Interactions.
The normalization process seemed likely to occur just prior to the onset of the Gaza conflict on October 7, when Hamas-led militants launched an attack on southern Israel, resulting in considerable loss of life and the taking of hostages.
Prior to the outbreak of violence, two Israeli ministers had conducted significant visits to Saudi Arabia.
The future of the normalization agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is uncertain as both countries navigate the intricate geopolitical landscape, particularly in light of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
MBS is expected to pursue a strategic blend of diplomatic initiatives and public relations campaigns to further the normalization agenda. This approach may involve ongoing discussions with U.S. officials to obtain essential concessions and guarantees, alongside efforts to shape public sentiment in the Middle East to reduce the risk of backlash.
Furthermore, MBS must reconcile Saudi Arabia’s security and economic priorities with the overarching objectives of regional stability and peace.
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